Are the books teasing you?

12 Nov 2021

Reading time ~4 minutes

Are the books teasing you?

Teasers can be a bettor’s best friend, or their worst enemy. Everyone loves the idea of sweetheart teasers and betting their favorite team down to under a touchdown. The problem is, sportsbooks love this also, and that is usually bad news for the bettor. Our goal at PickHub is to educate our customers, and help them achieve a positive ROI on sports betting. As a customer, you will notice that there are very specific situations where we give out teaser plays, and often times these teasers are larger plays for us than a straight side or total. The reasoning for this is that if you play these in the correct situations, then you’re gaining a significantly larger edge over the books. Let’s take a look at some of the basic do’s and don’ts of teasers.

Never

Tease basketball
Tease NCAAF
Cross through 0
Tease totals
Pay more than -130 for a 2 team / 6 point teaser

Always

Cross at least 2 (preferably 3) key numbers (3,4,6,7,10,14)
Look for games with lower totals
Shop for the best price

Never tease basketball

While you may be enticed to tease your favorite basketball team from -5 to -1, alongside your favorite football team, this is a losing proposition over time. Basketball provides too much volatility for these points to return the same value as an NFL teaser.

Never tease NCAAF

Same as reason as with never teasing basketball. The volatility in NCAAF is off the charts. Major upsets happen all the time, coupled with massive blow outs. Plenty of people say “But I’ve been winning my NCAAF teasers, what gives?” While this very well may be the case, the math does not support the idea that NCAAF teasers can hold up to winning over time. Case in point, sportsbooks will often offer better lines for NCAAF teasers than NFL. We promise you, they’re not doing this for your benefit…

Never cross through 0

It may be enticing to tease a team from -3 down to +3, but this provides negative value compared to the odds you’re placing your bet at. There is very little value on the numbers -2 through +2, so 4 of your teaser points are basically being given away. This is probably the biggest “DON’T” of them all.

Never tease totals

Totals do not land on specific numbers enough to provide value in taking extra points. There are key numbers in betting totals, but they still do not hit at the percentages of the key numbers on sides. This is a definite stay away if you want to make money betting teasers in the long term.

Never pay more than -130 for a 2 team / 6 point teaser

Your break even point on this teaser is 75.2% at -130 odds. If you’re crossing both the 3 & 7 on a teaser, these have hit at a blind historical rate of 75.6%. Enough said.

Always cross at least 2, preferably 3, key numbers (3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 14)

The numbers 3 & 7 are ultimately king in the NFL. In the last 18 years, the margin of victory in the NFL has been 3, almost 15% of the time. The margin of victory has been 7, almost 10% of the time. These numbers drop off drastically after this, with the next closest number being 6, at just under 6% of the time. What’s referred to as the Wong Teaser, crossing both the key numbers of 3 & 7 has historically provided the best teaser win rate.

Always look for games with lower totals

NFL games with lower totals also project out to lower volatility. For this reason, its more valuable to take team from +2.5 to +8.5 in a game with a total of 44 than it would be in a game with a total of 54.

Always shop for the best price

Most books by now have caught on to the advantageous edge that betting teasers has given the sharp bettor. To counter this, books are now charging more and more for playing teasers. While it used to common place to be able to place a 2 Team / 6 Point Teaser at even money, that is not the case anymore. Most shops out there are now charging -120 or more. Some shops have even gone to “dynamic odds”, which change based on what numbers you’re crossing in the teaser. As we touched on earlier, your break even odds go from 72.4% at -110 to 75.2% at -130. While this may not sound like much, an almost 3% extra edge over the long term is a big deal. It is still possible to find places that offer a 2 Team / 6 Point Teaser at -110, and we highly encourage you to shop around and find one that will work for you.

We hope you enjoyed this primer on teasers! At PickHub, we don’t stop with just giving you premium picks. We also strive to educate our members with posts like this one. So stay tuned and happy betting!